Ted Lilly is BDAS

Facial Hair and Low BB/9 - Definitely BDAS.

Much of the player evaluation fight between grimy old school scouts and tech savvy nerds has been over the effect of "make-up" or "intagible" on projecting a player value. This confusion is understandable. Take, for example, a player like Sean "The Mayor" Casey. Though perennially employed, stat guys see him as an overpaid player with minimal value. On the other side, scouts see a clubhouse guy that is an essential cog for a winning team - to confuse the matter more, Casey's now employed by the Stat centric Boston Red Sox. New Ted Lilly Fan Club Favorite Fourth Outfielder and Soul Patch Guru (NTLFCFFOASPG) Reed Johnson is another source of divide that hits close to home. All over this here blogyblogland Scouts and Analysts spew visceral hate at each other, only making the divide between them more difficult to cross... until now.

Introducing Ted Lilly Fan Club Open Source Statistical Venture (TLFCOSSV). Like other "Open Source" type programs (see Firefox or Open Office) we will allow other developers to add or subtract to the composition of this metric. The goal, combine hardcore statistical nerd- ery (of which we are slightly guilty) and soft core homo erotic scout- ery (ditto to the above parenthesized area) into one unifying statistic.... Albert Einstein, prepare to be served.

Introducing : BDAS - the "Bad Ass" stat.

Statistical components:

SO, AVG Against, OBP Against, SLG Against

Quasi Statistical Components:

HBP - amount of batters the pitcher has hit, WHIP - Walks + Hits over IP, fantasy staple

Non- Statistical Components:

TGN - The Good Name - a multiplier that represents "1" if the player has a good name, like C.C. Sabathia and a near zero for a bad name, like Jeff Francis.

MMU - Mound Make-Up - Rich Hill's mound demeanor (sulky - low value) versus Ted Lilly's mound demeanor (pillar of intimidation - off the charts.) This stat is a multiplier, like TGN.

AYTL - Are You Ted Lilly - measures how like Ted Lilly the pitcher is. Interestingly, Ted Lilly scores a 1.05 on AYTL but the Ted Lilly Fan Club Super Computer (TLFCSC) says the AYTL can only reach "1." Shocking. Soft tossing, super GB/FB, herky- jerky, right hander Cla Meredith scores the lowest 0.07 on this stat (as well as a horrific 0.12 TGN.)

The BDAS Stat will be calculated as follows:

[((SO+HBP) - ((AVG*OBP*SLG)/(WHIP))] * (TGN + MMU + AYTL)

If that doesn't make sense to you, just accept it for what it is.... the TLFCSC came up with it and we trust the SC.

Below is the shockingly accurate 2007 Top 10 BDAS' - Santana and Peavy up top with underrated Bad Asses like Javier Vazquez and Aaron Harang in there as well. Our boy, TL, third. Danny Haren just missed the top ten, likely to his pathetic TGN score of 0.55. We think that if we called him, "Dan" he may have finished higher.

NAME	TEAM	TGN	MMU	AYTL	BDAS
Johan Santana	MIN	0.67	0.95	0.95	573.987
C.C. Sabathia	CLE	0.9	0.9	0.9	513.8772
Ted Lilly	CHN	1	1	1.05	473.4793
Javier Vazquez	CHA	0.67	0.8	0.85	447.6606
Jake Peavy	SDN	0.6	0.95	0.3	429.3088
Aaron Harang	CIN	0.6	0.85	0.7	426.1753
Scott Kazmir	TBA	0.65	0.85	0.86	420.6417
Brandon Webb	ARI	0.65	0.9	0.95	418.018
John Lackey	ANA	0.55	0.9	0.95	378.7854

We're overly excited about this idea and would love your help - we want to add in "Facial Hair" and VORP but don't have the time right now. Leave any improvements you have in the comments and we'll be sure to plug them into the TLFCSC.


* Special thanks to Cub Julie over at A League of Her Own with her "SCRP" stat. That's our inspiration.

Now Introducing Ted Lilly Fan Club's 2008 Arch Nemesis: Jay Mariotti

Okay...just to table set a bit, everyone around the Ted Lilly Fan Club is a bit groggy this a.m. after getting up early to watch Opening Day from the Tokyo (quick recap: Manny--fantasy baseball gold; Huston Street--wrecked confidence) so apologies in advance for any grammatical errors or Sanka-fileld rants.

Unfortunately, we were floored when, walking by a fish market, we saw a Chicago Sun-Times wrapped around a beautiful Rainbow Smelt and caught sight of Jay Mariotti's latest column, entitled "What does Cubdom want, mush or truth? Sorry, Cubs fans, but it's about time someone gives you dose of reality".

Normally, we heart Mariotti. He has an intense hatred of Ozzie Guillen which is fantastic (any enemy of the ChiSox is a friend of the TLFC), he provides a good foil to Woody Paige on "Around the Horn" (although Stat Boy needs to go) and the fact that he had the balls to call John "Golden Boy" Elway 'a greedy and scared punk' was uber impressive.

However, this column simply goes too far in condemning the Cubbies and solidifies Mariotti's position as the Ted Lilly Fan Club's official 2008 Arch Nemesis (rest easy, Paul Sullivan, you're off the hook friend).

Yes, Jay correctly points out that TL and Big Z are legit but the rest of the column is just trash.

#1. Huston Street as our closer? Ummmmm, did you this morning's game? That blown save aside, we're not sure that we'd want to trade away our farm system for a 25 year old with elbow issues but, even so, closer is only one part of the equation here...

#2. Sam Zell. Are you really questioning Sam Zell here? Let's take a quick look at recent Sun-Times ownership----Hmmmm, Conrad Black. Sounds familiar. Oh, that's right, Black was convicted in Illinois U.S. District Court on July 13, 2007 and sentenced to 6 or so years in federal prison. This jab smells like professional jealousy to us...

#3. Rotation. Agreed...TL is rock-solid and Zambrano is a good #2 starter but Rich Hill is a solid #3 (even though he'll officially be #4 to break up lefty-lefty lineup with Johnny Drama Dempster in between) with Frenchy Marquis a great #5. Who else in the Central has that rotation?

Mets have issues with Maine, Perez and El Duque...Ditto for D'Bags once you get past Webb and Haren. As for why the Frenchy for Crisp deal is a terrible idea, please have your intern click on over to a previous TLFC blog entry on this very topic.

#4. You suck. We've tried to be intelligent with the above three but, for #4, we're going to revert back to good old fashioned name calling.

Your use of the word "Punk'd" in the second to last paragraph screams pathetic like some dad trying to act cool in front of their kids.

Your inclusion of Lou Brock and Maddux remind us of Notre Dame fans always referring back to the glory days of Tony Rice and Ric Mirer. Jay--please turn off "Glory Days" and stop living in the past friend-o.

As for your inane support of Andy MacPhail, let's remember his strategic acquisitons of Dan Pleasac and Candy Maldanado and draft picks of Todd Noel and Ryan Harvey but our friends at Goat Rider of the Apocalypse sum it up better here. Owning his success to his last name, MacPhail's a classic member of the lucky sperm club alongside charter member Joe Buck

For this and a million more reasons, we are happy to annouce that you have been nominated and accepted (TLFC uses the DNP caucus system) as our official 2008 Arch Nemesis.

Fire it up, Ted Heads, Jay Mariotti Voodoo Dolls will soon be made available for purchase...

Ted Lilly Fan Club Super Computer Prediction: Red Sox: 5, A's: 1

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(TLFC-speak for Happy Happy Opening Day Eve Ted Heads)

Well, in honor of Opening Day baseball, we dusted the Ted Lilly Fan Club Super Computer off with robot-friendly Pledge, plugged him into the wall to recharge a bit and let him watch a few Conky-centric episodes of "Pee-Wee's Playhouse" to get him excited before putting him to work on a prediction for tomorrow morning's season opener between the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics.

After examining game tape from the 2006 World Baseball Classic, reading an e-book version of "Money Ball" and XXX, the TLFCSC printed out the following prediction:

Red Sox: 5

Oakland: 1

Dice-K: 6IP, 1 ER, 5Ks and 1 new Ramen Noodles endorsement

Joe Blanton: 5 IP, 5 ER and no hope for the 2008 season

Theo Epstein: 1 Guitar Hero-worthy karaoke rendition of KISS' "Rock-N-Roll All Night"

Happy Opening Day Ted Heads...

Ted Lilly Fan Club Hot Stove Update: Frenchy Marquis for Box of Cereal

UPDATE: Good folks at ESPN are now reporting that Marquis has been named the 5th starter, making the below post look outdated and moronic but, seeing as how we're gluttons for punishment, we'll keep it up on the blog for the sole fact that the rookie card pic is soooooooo intense.

The Denver Post ran an item yesterday about the rumored Jason Marquis for Coco Crisp deal.

Obviously, this is largely dependent on what Sweet Lou decides to do with the rotation after Big Z, TL and Intern Richie but the TLFC wants to go on the record as hating this deal for a number of reasons:

# 1. Felix Pie has the full support of the Ted Lilly Fan Club management and support staff. Some baseball pundits in the media (looking in your direction Buster Olney) have soured on Felix Pie and now claim that he is the latest line of Cubs "can't miss" prospets that will be a flop at the major league level.

Granted, we've been trying to sell our CPat and Bobby Hills jerseys on Craig's List for a few years now but Pie is simply too good to give up on at this point..

Add in the fact that he has twisted testicles and it's safe to say that we need to cut Pie a little slack and take comfort in the fact that we don't have to experience that pain....

# 2. Coco Crisp is a horrible cereal and worse center fielder. Honestly, why in god's name would we even consider this deal? Surrounded by a fantasy baseball gold line-up in Boston the last few years, Crisp struggled to main a plus .260 BA. or hold off Jacob Ellsbury.

As an Iowa Cub, Pie's AAA numbers were absolutely gaudy. He was fricking 21 and raked to a tune of .362/.410/.563. At 21, we were busy buying beer for underage kids and throwing away our fake Montana driver's license.

We're cuckoo for Felix Pie and Corn Pops, not Coco Crisp...although TLFC House Mom Brenda does try and limit our sugar intake after the Intern Rich Hill/Lucky Charms/Water Balloon incident of 2006.

# 3. Franco-American relations. For the 1st time in years, Franco-American relations have improved on an international scale and the TLFC believes that we should help continue that progress with Frenchy Marquis, Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot.

Plus, after a shaky first inning, Frenchy retired 11 straight to lead the Northsiders to victory on Easter Sunday against the Padres. Put Johnny Drama Dempster in the pen and throw Marquis in the rotation.

TLFC endorses a "No" vote on Proposition 49, sending Frenchy to Boston Red Sox.

Big Z To Face-Off Against Ted Lilly In Easter Egg Hunt For Opening Day Starter Nod

In a move that goes against traditional baseball strategy, word of Cubs camp today is that Carlos Zambrano will face off against Ted Lilly in a competitive Easter Egg hunt to determine who will officially get the nod as Opening Day starter on March 31st against the Milwaukee Brewers.

“Sure, we would have liked to have this thing decided in camp or maybe through a competitive hot dog eating contest,” said Lou Pinella, Cubs manager and resident record holder of most giardinera peppers eaten in 1 minute. “Both have pitched decently well this spring and Dempster rolled both of them in the hot-dog thing. Looks like a competitive Easter Egg hunt is the only real solution.”

Sports books at the Las Vegas Mirage and MGM Grand currently list Big Z as the odds-on favorite given his physical prowess and recent Easter Egg hunt wins at Tucson Elementary and the Mesa School for the Blind but, Vegas veteran and renowned bookie, Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal (inspiration for DeNiro character in “Casino”) believes that TL’s scrappiness and Lillyhammer out pitch could be a deciding factor.

“Everyone loves Zambrano here. Kid’s got the height, kid’s got the reach, kid’s got a passable understanding of the English language—reminds of the Jack Johnson fight back against James Jeffries back in 1910 but this Ted Lilly has got something special,” said Rosenthal. “If I was a betting man and I am, my money’s on the crafty lefthander from Torrance.”

The Hunt, which will take plan in the outfield of Hohokam Stadium, will be ten minutes in length and will have a "two men enter, one man leaves" Mad Max Thunderdome feel with fake eggs, chainsaws hung on the outfield walls and Tina Turner impersonators. It will be officiated by Bob Brenly while Len Kasper’s band, Your Indentured Servants, will provide entertainment for the fans.

Fire it up, Arizona Ted Heads...hunt goes live at 10 am Easter morning...

Ted Lilly Fan Club Guide to Major League Baseball in Japan

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Oh, you don’t speak robot code? Sorry about that…that’s just the Ted Lilly Fan Club Super Computer saying hello and welcoming you to his blog posting and guide to MLB’s Opening Day at the Tokyo Dome between the Chunichi Dragons and the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, errrggghhh Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics.

Say konnichiwa to the 2008 season in the land of Honda, Pokemon, and prolonged American Occupation (looking at you Kenda Air Base).

Normally, Hiroki Tanabe, our Tokyo-based TLFC Japan correspondent would be the point person for this blog post but, given the fact that the TLFCSC was “born” in Japan "Blade Runner"-style, we felt that it was only right to let him be your guide.

So take off your shoes, put on a kimono or other culturally appropriate attire and relax.

A few Do’s and Don’ts:

Do: Enjoy some extra cold, extra smooth Kirin beers while watching Tom Selleck in “Mr. Baseball” on the 10+ hour plane flight to get yourself in the mood. No one and, we mean no one, rocks a mustache like Selleck (except for maybe Rollie Fingers or the real Patch Adams). Throw in a cameo from Allstate spokesperson and former President of the United States Dennis Haysbert as Max “Hammer” Dubois and we’re good to go.

Don’t: Feel bad about resenting your reigning World Series champion Red Sox.
Red Sox Nation? Yeah right…they are just as bad as their friends down I-90. Take away their Sam Adams and Clam Chowder and replace them with hate crimes and thin crust pizza and the Red Sox Nation quickly morphs into the hated Yankees.

To make matters worse, the team has an adopted creepy #1 fan in Stephen King, was the topic of a few Dropkick Murphy songs and played a supporting role in the Jimmy Fallon vehicle, “Fever Pitch.” Three strikes, you’re out. Ted Williams is rolling over in his cryogenically-friendly box.

Do: Appreciate the intense Japanese love of baseball and karaoke. Called 野球 (やきゅう; yakyū) in Japanese, baseball has been around since 1878 (yep about 15 years after pro baseball started in the U.S.) and is followed religiously (see “Baseball, Mr.” reference above) by fans around the island. We also have Japanese fans to thank for the thunderstick fan thingy that we now have to deal with at stadiums around the U.S.

As for the karaoke, it's obviously the crown jewel of the Japanese empire, alongside Zero planes, Michael Crichton’s novel “Rising Sun” and the Donger from Sixteen Candles. Nothing says class like a sterotypical hoard of Japanese businessmen belting out “Sister Christian” after wacking back martinis.

Don’t: Overlook the fact that this whole Opening Day has Conspiracy Theory written all over it. Don’t believe us? Grab your "Catcher in the Rye" and let’s break it down TLFCSC –style.

Fact #1: On March 11, just 14 days before the start of the season, it was announced that Josh Beckett, World Series MVP and former beau of Skinemax-friendly Alyssa Milano, would not make the trip to Japan for Opening Day.

Fact #2: Today, a mere 12 days before the trip to the Far East (TLFC Super Computer uncomfortably insists on using the word "Orient" even though we don't support it), Curt Schilling, Boston's #2 starter, went on the sixty-day disabled list to rehabilitate his right shoulder.

Fact #3: Daisuke Matsuzaka, former Seibu Lion and Sawamura Award winner, is now projected as the club's starter on Opening Day. Interestingly enough, Dice-K's wife had her baby well short of her projected due date... Did Theo Induce?

Fact #4: The A's are terrible. Not just Milwaukee Brewers terrible...real world terrible. No starting pitching except 15th round fantasy baseball stud Joe Blanton. No hitting except for Eric "is it still 2003?" Chavez and no passion every since they fired MC Hammer as their batboy.

This is going to be an absolute rout and smells like a hollow PR stunt to sell Big Papi and Kevin Cash jerseys...

6 Days, 17 hours and 32 minutes to Opening Day…

TLFC Thoughts on Positions Battles, NL Central Standings

Kind of a lazy post here, but we thought we'd chime in on a few things.

First off, it's been a bit of slow day around the TLFCHQ so we gave the interns some Crafts Time instead of their usual daily TL film break down sessions and took sometime ourselves to think more about the NL Central. The result - this horrifying image above and a non-data backed NL Central standings prediction. Inspired by a post by our friends at The Cub Reporter about the "Position Battles," turns our Intern Sam Fuld was a little fired up at Lou's separation comments. As an aside, we predict Sam will close the gap a little bit, but our choice for center field remains the same. . . we will say League of Her Own makes a pretty solid case of the Hamburgerler in Center.

Concerning the fifth starter spot. We've always been partial to the French Duke, but if Demp throws another outing like yesterday, we'd be willing to go with him. In all, this is a pretty set team and we're happy about it. BRob aside, we'd be happy to have TL stand toe to toe with the likes of Lee, Derosa, Theriot, Rammy, Soriano, Pie, Fuku, and Soto. That's a solid, if not great, defensive team that can rake - not many teams can say that. The bullpen has few questions (looking at you Scott Eyre) and everyone knows what we think of the starting pitching.

So, given our optimism, our recent run of TLFC Spring traing reviews, and getting recently called out for being a "ridiculous in our predictions," we wanted to lay it all out. Just so we're clear:

Ted Lilly Fan Club Projected 2008 NL Central Final Standings

1) Cubs
2) Brewers
3) Reds
4) Cards
5) Astros
6) Bucs

It pains us to put the Reds third, but we absolutely loathe that Astros team. We hate them so
much we had to but the Cards above them, even though its safe to say the Cards will cellar dwell with the Bucs. (Check over at Fire Joe Morgan for some Dusty loving. We had to shower after reading that... gross.)

There it is for all else to see, feel free to blast away.

Felix Pie's Testicles Hurt

That, our friends, is about as SFW picture as you can find when you use the keywords, "Twisted," and "Balls."

It hurts just thinking about this. Ouch.

Why cover this? How does it relate to Ted Lilly or his Fans? Oh you naive soul.

As it stands, Felix Pie is critical to the success for the 2008 Cubs and the 2015 Cubs World Series Victory over Miami. He's easily the best defensive outfielder on the team and likely the best Center fielder in the NL Central. With the increasingly immobile Soriano in left and the unproven Fuku - madness in right, in terms of defense alone, Pie needs to be out there. This doesn't mean we hate Intern Sam Fuld. On the contrary, we love him as an off the bench guy for all spots. What Fuld doesn't have and Pie does is the ability to be a star.

Pie's AAA numbers are absolutely gaudy. He was fricking 21 and raked to a tune of .362/.410/.563 while going 2-2 in late night slump busting at the Des Moines TGIF's. His slump busting numbers are skewed by small sample size, but we think he's going to really shine at Beaumont if the going gets rough.

Clearly, these numbers doesn't translate to automatic MLB success (see Hill, Bobby or Kelton, David) but Pie's Tremendous Upside Potential could be the X factor for the 2008 Cubs. In this line - up, Pie will be able to hit low in the order, with little pressure (anyone remember the Pie leading off last year?), and work on just making contact. It's prefect and we were excited to see him play.

But this! Given Lou and Hendry's proclivity for "scrappy guys," what happens if Felix "One Nut" Pie is bothered by injury for any significant duration? The Sam Fuld Era may begin. Honestly, how long will Pie's ego let him sit out with a testicular injury? It's not like this isn't a very real scenario, testicular pain is very, very painful. To all you Lady Ted Heads out there, trust us, its worse and harder than giving birth.

Ultimately Pie's injury greatly worries us. Not just for Felix, but for our own testicles and the sheer horror that now fills us knowing that they can be twisted. We're praying for you and for a speedy recovery.

Ted Lilly Fan Club Spring Training Report: Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates (Sloppy Seconds Edition)

While in the past few weeks we've dedicated stand-alone space to spring training reports on the Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers, we just couldn't bring ourselves to spending the time or emotional pain on two, individual reports on the Cincinasty Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Sure, these two squads are filled with fantasy baseball gold like Freddy "Dirty" Sanchez, Adam Dunn and Aaron Harang but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that these two teams will do anything except battle with the Cards for the distinction of worst team in the NL Central.

Looking at the Reds, our first problem is that TLFC favorite, recovering coke head and star of A&E's "Intervention" Josh Hamilton has since moved on to Texas (make no mistake about it, we love Josh Hamilton and his story.) Secondly, Ken Griffey Jr. is probably better off trying to green light "Little Big League II" than playing outfield and, finally, it never helps that your #1 celebrity fan is Nick "I still can't believe I used to sleep with Jessica Simpson" Lachey.

Throw in the beginning of the Dusty Baker Era (which coincidently coincides with the Drustruction of Jay Bruce's Confidence Era... weird, huh) and we don't believe in this team doing any damage.

Sitting back down with Ismeralda, the TLFCVPAMOALS (Ted Lilly Fan Club Voodoo Priestess and Master of All Things Supernatural), we played with some tarot cards, rolled some bones and inspected some bird carcasses before landing on this prediction:

65 wins (down from 72 in 2007)
1 Sympathy All-Star in RP Francisco Cordero
1 Fallen Prospect
2 Forests of Australian Trees Chewed to Pulp
15 % decrease in attendance at Great American Ballpark

As for your 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates, the less said, the better. Sure, there are signs to be hopeful. Tom "Pride of Evergreen Park, IL" Gorzelanny is a stud, Jack Wilson remains a Cub killer and Xavier Nady is a great Scrabble answer (if you are allowing proper names which the TLFC 7th Annual Scrabble Tournament and Pillsbury Bake-off does). We've also got particular affection for new Buc's GM Neil Hunnington... he's a Lord Jeff (we don't know what that is, but we know D III Amherst College is a breeding ground for marginal GM's - looking at you Dan Duquette.)

There are more holes in this team than a block of swiss cheese (get it? get it? Intern Sam Fuld got that joke from a Bazooka Joe wrapper that we bought him when he won 2nd place in his schools Spelling Bee). No depth in their rotation, thin line-up once you get past Jason Bay and Dirty Sanchez and, well, Pittsburgh just sucks. The best part is, once Bay gets hot, Hunnington is going to flip him to the Tribe for marginal prospects, locking in Bucs faithful for at least three years of rebuilding... Good Times!

Ismeralda wouldn't even take the time away from her Psychic Hotline to give us a prediction, other than to say that "the Pirates will have a terrible year, Iron City beer is fantastic and Sidney Crosby has ridiculously great hair".

TLFC Super Computer quickly stepped and offered up this line:

62 Wins (down from 68)
1 traded All-Star in Jason Bay ("Helllooooooooo Cleveland!")
25% increase in anti-depressant drug use by loyal Pirate fans
100+ references to good days of Roberto Clemente, Honus Wagner and Andy Van Slyke.

21 days to Opening Day baseball, Ted Heads...get those homemade #30 TL jerseys ready!